brian
the home loan guy

Thoughts from Brian:

Mortgage Rates are starting the week off better than last. Both Stocks & Bonds are seeing a boost today after President Trump announced a delay on EU tariffs, but this could be short lived. President Trumps “One Big Beautiful Bill” is awaiting approval from the Senate. If it passes, this will add to the US Debt and push Treasury yields higher which could be bad for Mortgage Rates.

Mortgage Rates below are with 0 Points!

Thoughts from Brian:

Over the weekend US & China met in Switzerland to work out a trade deal. The outcome was a 90 day pause on most tariffs, with the US reducing its 145% tariff on certain goods down to 30%. This was GREAT NEWS for the Stock Market as investors see this trade deal as less inflationary. This was BAD NEWS for the Bond Market which is what Mortgage Rates are tied too. Remember, when Stocks go up, Mortgage Rates rise. When Stocks go down and money moves into Bonds (a lower yield safe haven for investors) Mortgage Rates go down. Mortgage Rates will hover around current level for the next couple of weeks. Mortgage Rates below are with 0 Points!

Thoughts from Brian:

It's FED week, but don’t expect a rate cut! The markets see no chance of the FED cutting rates this Wednesday and have pushed a “possible” rate cut to the June FED meeting. So what is it going to take for the FED to cut rates…a higher unemployment rate! Fridays BLS jobs report showed higher than expected job gains with no change in the unemployment rate. Investors joked on Friday that the BLS should take the “L” out of its name because Fridays jobs report was just that, BS. The markets are growing very tired of the constant inaccurate reporting by the BLS. In the months that follow the initial BLS report, the jobs figures are always revised downward, most of the time by half, but these negative revisions do not get news or headlines that the initial report does. Traders and Investors know the labor market IS NOT as sound or robust as the Government makes it out to be, but they can only go off what is currently being reported. Mortgage Rates below are with 0 Points!

Thoughts from Brian:

It’s going to be an action-packed week with a tsunami of data coming out! On Tuesday we get the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). On Wednesday we get 1st Quarter GDP results and PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) which is the FEDs favorite measure of inflation. On Thursday we get initial jobless claims and on Friday we get the big BLS Jobs report (Bureau of Labor Statistics)where the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. All of this data has the potential to move the markets and mortgage rates in either direction..

Thoughts from Brian:

Mortgage Rates have started the week off higher due to news that President Trump may try to fire FED Chair Jerome Powell, even though he is not supposed to be able to do so without cause. President Trump is not happy that the FED has not continued to lower rates, despite the FED’s reasoning. The friction between the White House and the Central Bank is not good for the Bond Market or Mortgage Rates. The next FED meeting is scheduled for May the 7th and so far, it doesn’t appear that the FED will be cutting rates at this meeting.

Thoughts from Brian:

Last week was brutal for the Bond Market and Mortgage Rates! We saw Mortgage Rates rise between .25% to .50% on various loan programs as the Trade War with China blew up! This week, the market opened up on a positive note as news broke over the weekend about reduced Tariffs on certain goods. Its not what we want to hear, but expect Mortgage Rates to swing up and down as this Tarriff stuff plays out over the next several weeks. With that being said, Mortgage Rates are still expected to move lower throughout the year.